A.1 Proof of Proposition 12 Proposition 1 The historical contrastive instance discrimination (HCID) can be modelled as a3 maximum likelihood problem optimized via Expectation Maximization.4 Maximum likelihood (ML) is a concept to describe the theoretic insights of clustering algorithms.6 PN n=1 Z(kn) = 1), and the last step of derivation13 employs Jensen's inequality [6, 7, 4]. Z(kn) log p(xq,kn; θE) (5) Expectation step focuses on estimating the posterior probability p(kn; xq,θE). We first gener-17 ate keys by a historical encoder: kt mn = Et m(xt), and xt Xtgt. Then, We calculate18 p(kn; xq,θE) = p(kt mn; xq,θE) = 1 (xq,kt mn), where 1 (xq,kt mn) = 1 if both belong to the19 positive pair; otherwise, 1 (xq,kt mn) = 0.20 Please note the notation "t m" shows that the k is encoded by a historical encoder.21

Unsupervised domain adaptation aims to align a labeled source domain and an unlabeled target domain, but it requires to access the source data which often raises concerns in data privacy, data portability and data transmission efficiency. We study unsupervised model adaptation (UMA), or called Unsupervised Domain Adaptation without Source Data, an alternative setting that aims to adapt source-trained models towards target distributions without accessing source data. To this end, we design an innovative historical contrastive learning (HCL) technique that exploits historical source hypothesis to make up for the absence of source data in UMA. HCL addresses the UMA challenge from two perspectives. First, it introduces historical contrastive instance discrimination (HCID) that learns from target samples by contrasting their embeddings which are generated by the currently adapted model and the historical models. With the historical models, HCID encourages UMA to learn instance-discriminative target representations while preserving the source hypothesis. Second, it introduces historical contrastive category discrimination (HCCD) that pseudo-labels target samples to learn category-discriminative target representations.

Unsupervised domain adaptation aims to align a labeled source domain and an unlabeled target domain, but it requires to access the source data which often raises concerns in data privacy, data portability and data transmission efficiency. We study unsupervised model adaptation (UMA), or called Unsupervised Domain Adaptation without Source Data, an alternative setting that aims to adapt source-trained models towards target distributions without accessing source data. To this end, we design an innovative historical contrastive learning (HCL) technique that exploits historical source hypothesis to make up for the absence of source data in UMA. HCL addresses the UMA challenge from two perspectives. First, it introduces historical contrastive instance discrimination (HCID) that learns from target samples by contrasting their embeddings which are generated by the currently adapted model and the historical models.

Temporal knowledge graph, serving as an effective way to store and model dynamic relations, shows promising prospects in event forecasting. However, most temporal knowledge graph reasoning methods are highly dependent on the recurrence or periodicity of events, which brings challenges to inferring future events related to entities that lack historical interaction. In fact, the current moment is often the combined effect of a small part of historical information and those unobserved underlying factors. To this end, we propose a new event forecasting model called Contrastive Event Network (CENET), based on a novel training framework of historical contrastive learning. CENET learns both the historical and non-historical dependency to distinguish the most potential entities that can best match the given query. Simultaneously, it trains representations of queries to investigate whether the current moment depends more on historical or non-historical events by launching contrastive learning. The representations further help train a binary classifier whose output is a boolean mask to indicate related entities in the search space. During the inference process, CENET employs a mask-based strategy to generate the final results. We evaluate our proposed model on five benchmark graphs. The results demonstrate that CENET significantly outperforms all existing methods in most metrics, achieving at least $8.3\%$ relative improvement of Hits@1 over previous state-of-the-art baselines on event-based datasets.